In San Francisco, the longtime hub of the US tech sector, fortunes tied to synthetic intelligence startups are inflating house costs and fueling a spike in evictions, splitting town’s inhabitants into two totally different trajectories.
The divergence was clear throughout an open home final Sunday at a renovated three-bedroom house within the stylish Duboce Triangle neighborhood.
Asking worth for the residence, which comes with marble loos and a completed attic? A cool $3 million — however the vendor famous he was prepared to be paid in shares of OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, or its rival Anthropic.
Each AI firms have not too long ago introduced plans to go public.
One tech worker on the viewing, who requested to stay nameless, mentioned: “They’re actually after $3.5, perhaps $4 million. The asking worth is simply there to kick off the bidding.”
Whether or not the house may very well be purchased with shares stays to be seen, however the frenzy round it sparked a bigger dialog about San Francisco housing.
The preliminary public choices of OpenAI and Anthropic might generate greater than 16,000 new millionaires, in keeping with funding analysis agency Sacra.
That money inflow might drive up a housing market that’s already seeing skyrocketing costs.
Already, AI workers have been cashing in on the gold rush, with greater than 600 present or former OpenAI employees promoting almost $7 billion price of shares by the tip of 2025.
“Actual property brokers began to note the surge of exercise starting final fall and winter” — comparable to when OpenAI workers might begin promoting their firm shares on non-public markets, Danielle Lazier, a San Francisco actual property dealer, instructed AFP.
The Bay Space’s housing market has now break up: whereas costs of luxurious actual property have elevated 13.6 p.c since ChatGPT launched in 2022, costs in additional inexpensive neighborhoods have really dropped 3.8 p.c, in keeping with actual property platform Redfin.
Now solely six p.c of properties in the marketplace are inexpensive for these with the area’s median family revenue of $162,000.
File gross sales, report evictions
File-setting transactions are an everyday incidence, with actual property company Compass reporting the sale in Could of a house overlooking the Marina District for $15 million — almost double its $8 million asking worth.
“This has the same really feel to 2000,” mentioned actual property agent Nina Hatvany, in reference to the dot-com bubble, including that about half of the provides are all-cash.
She described a “bifurcated” market with bidding wars on single-family properties over $3 million, “with very, very excessive costs being achieved as folks ‘win’ the property.”
In the meantime, there is not a lot competitors for comparatively extra modest condominiums in San Francisco, she instructed AFP.
Bidding wars are nothing new in San Francisco, brokers say, however Hatvany mentioned provides now routinely are available in “at 10 to twenty p.c over what appeared like an affordable asking worth.”
The distinction couldn’t be starker at a courthouse a brief distance away which holds eviction hearings.
Such hearings reached a 10-year excessive in 2025, in keeping with the San Francisco Normal information outlet, they usually proceed to rise.
“We’re at a brand new peak,” Jacqueline Patton, an eviction protection legal professional in San Francisco, instructed the Normal.
She mentioned the spike is because of each the AI growth and the winding down of pandemic-era renter protections.
Actual property platform Zumper mentioned the median lease for a one-bedroom house reached $4,000 for the primary time not too long ago, with a two-bedroom averaging $5,500, a nationwide excessive tied solely by New York Metropolis.
Housing advocates, for his or her half, criticize town for not boosting its anti-eviction finances since 2021, whilst eviction filings have tripled since then, in keeping with the San Francisco Normal.
