U.S. President Donald Trump will face an uphill battle in Washington with the Democratic Party set to take control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress in January after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
But experts say little of what the administration has done so far will change anytime soon because of the power Trump still holds as president, even as a lame duck.
The midterms saw a decisive defeat for the Republican Party, as voters cast their ballots following almost two years of the Trump presidency and his administration’s agenda, with the results reflecting frustration among the majority of voters.
“Those who had the courage to stand against the Trump administration’s policies were vindicated by the checks and balances of the U.S. political system that ultimately pushed American voters to issue their bold verdict on less than two years of Trump 2.0,” said Derek Holt, Scotiabank vice president and head of Capital Markets Economics, in a note to clients.
“Voters saw this period as marked by inflamed deficits, unwise trade policies, overstimulation of growth and capacity pressures that sparked affordability challenges, broken promises about ending forever wars, attacks on public institutions, a revenge agenda and overly harsh immigration policy.”
Although the midterm results send a strong message to Republicans and the Trump administration, it’s unclear if there will be any major near-term changes in Washington.
Here’s a look at how things could change now that American voters handed the Democrats more control of the U.S. government.
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How U.S. government is structured
There are three main branches of the federal government in the United States, including Congress, which is made up of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as the executive branch, with Trump at the helm.
Since Trump’s second term began in January 2025, Republicans have held the majority of both the House and the Senate, but Republicans will hand over that majority in January 2027 as dozens of new Democrats take their seats in Washington.
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At the same time, Trump is set to remain as president of the United States and the executive branch of government will continue to grant him the power to change certain regulations, including tariffs. He can also veto bills Congress passes and use executive orders to authorize some actions without their approval or without needing legislation.
Having two opposing political forces in Washington means there will likely be some gridlock for the next two years, and a Democratic-controlled Congress may find other hurdles to make it harder for Trump to get his agenda over the finish line.
“It is now harder for the president of the United States to enact legislation to pursue his agenda,” says political science professor Aaron Ettinger at Carleton University.
“Now that we have a divided government, with Congress being controlled by Democrats and the White House — the executive branch — being controlled by a Republican, you have two fiercely oppositional, antagonistic parties who are probably going to be at loggerheads. So it’s going to be very difficult to pass laws.”
A Democrat-controlled House of Representatives, Senate, and their respective committees will also get significantly more power around launching investigations and issuing subpoenas, which could force Trump onto a more defensive footing and lock his focus on more domestic pressures.
What this means for Canada
The U.S. launched a trade war with countries around the world last year when Trump slapped tariffs on thousands of imports — particularly against Canada with tariffs escalating in recent months.
Since tariffs were enacted through Trump and the executive branch of government, it would be very difficult for Congress to reverse those policies.
“The power of tariffing still resides within the executive branch of the U.S. government, and certainly in Donald Trump’s presidency. He is still using a legislative foundation from Congresses yonks ago to impose the kind of tariffs that are afflicting Canadians right now,” says Ettinger.
“Canadians, unfortunately, can’t just say, ‘Team Blue won the election yesterday, everything is going to be better.’ We’re still in for a really hard ride over the next two years.”
Trump’s tariff policies have impacted both the Canadian and U.S. economies and job markets by making it more expensive to import certain goods. The impact on local communities in Maine and Michigan are just some examples where tariffs likely fuelled a blue wave in the midterms as those tariff impacts became a sticking point for voters.
Affordability for Americans was top of mind in these midterms, with tariffs, as well as the Iran war, leading to volatile price spikes for gasoline and other goods.
In the weeks ahead, Trump and the Republicans will be in the so-called “lame duck” session, where lawmakers may try to get as much done as they can while still holding power in Congress.
With new lawmakers being sworn into Congress in about two months, Holt said he wouldn’t be surprised if several major policies and priorities get expedited before Democrats have a chance to push back.
On the trade war, Canada is still without a renewed trade deal that could replace the current Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and Holt says the lame duck session is “the window that counts.”
“If the aim is to get DJT’s (Trump’s) signature on a new comprehensive agreement, then do so before having to put it through a Congress controlled by the Democrats. At that point, the Dems control the issues and may seek greater input over matters like labour controls and the environment. A smaller deal and reversal or watering down of prior executive orders is also a possibility outside of Congress,” said Holt in a note to clients.
“Overall, I’m cautiously optimistic and don’t buy the common narrative that Trump will double down against the agreement. If either he or GOP members read the room last evening, then tariffs, assaults on key trading partners and allies and divisive trade policy were among the factors that cost them the vote.”
There is also the risk of a government shutdown if Congress can’t agree on a funding deal by the Dec. 11 deadline, although Holt maintains the scenario is unlikely, and Republicans may seek to raise the debt ceiling level before Democrats apply leverage against the Trump administration.
Holt also says Trump may try to pass some of his administration’s final priorities like tax measures, address disaster funding, defence appropriations and extending subsidies for U.S. farmers, given the importance of the sector’s support for Trump.
Finally, Holy says he wouldn’t be surprised if Trump issued a long list of pardons, which Democrats may otherwise block, and that Trump will likely make changes to his cabinet.