Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she wants to see Canada “double down” on diplomacy efforts with U.S. officials and avoid any further escalation of the trade war between the two countries.
On Wednesday, the premier rejected calls by the Opposition NDP, along with others such as former premier Jason Kenney, to use Alberta’s energy experts as a high-stakes bargaining chip.
“Although I understand the need to respond strongly to these tariffs, I cannot think of a more disastrous policy decision than cutting off or taxing Alberta’s oil to the United States,” she said.
“When you take an action, you have to expect and equal and opposite — and probably even more forceful — reaction.”
The U.S. has the power to cripple Canada energy-wise, she cautioned.
“It would not only extinguish the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of Albertans, it would economically hobble our friends and neighbors in other provinces to the east.”
Smith predicted if Canada were to enact a 50 per cent tariff on the four million barrels of oil exported south each day, the U.S.would hit back with a 50 to 100 per cent retaliatory tariff on all the oil and gas products, including ones shipped up to Eastern Canada like aviation and other refined fuels.
“This would result in the loss of about half a million jobs at a minimum, mostly in Alberta, but also hundreds of thousands of jobs in Ontario and Quebec.”
Cutting off exports entirely would hurt even worse, the premier cautioned.
“The United States would, of course, respond and cut off all gasoline and diesel from their refineries to Ontario and Quebec, right as we turn into fall and winter,” Smith said.
She also predicted American refineries that currently process Alberta’s heavy oil would switch to refining Venezuelan oil.
“As a result, we would lose the United States as a customer entirely and likely forever.”
So far, Alberta’s oil and gas exports to the U.S. have dodged Trump’s tariffs.
Provincial statistics peg the value of Alberta’s oil exports to the U.S. in 2025 at close to $111 billion — representing much of the province’s nearly $177 billion worth of all global exports.
Smith said she doesn’t think Canada could win the dispute through force and that it’ll come down to Canada being “too friendly, kind and helpful to resist.”
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“We need to be wise, patient, careful and deliberate to overcome the economic attacks our country is facing. So rather than making threats and promises we know we cannot keep, Canada should focus on what we can control and do,” Smith said.
The U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3 will see votes for all 435 Congress seats and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate.
If Democrats regain control of either chamber, they will be empowered to block U.S. President Donald Trump’s agenda and launch investigations into his administration for the final two years of his term.
Smith said Canada needs to seize the moment.
“We must give our people and our businesses the resources they need to survive, and give the American people and their leaders the time they need to reverse these terrible policies after the November midterms.”
The Alberta premier said that means de-escalating threats and ramping up diplomacy with U.S. Congress members and State governors in both parties, to communicate how destructive tariffs are for Americans.
“Canada will not win this battle through brute force. We will win it through being smarter, more strategic, more agile, and using our relationship with the American people to have these tariffs reversed.
“That is how we win.”
Opposition NDP leader Naheed Nenshi said Smith’s strategy is to do nothing.
“She thinks being nice to the Americans and hoping they come around is a strategy,” Nenshi said after Smith’s news conference. “It isn’t.
“Hope is not a strategy and relying on Trump is certainly not a strategy.”
The NDP said it’s time for tough decisions like banning American liquor and cancelling the referendum to focus on the trade war.
“For more than a year now we’ve been talking about the need to strengthen Canadian markets, forming a more strategic relationship with the United States, diversifying our global trade relations, attracting global talent, and, most of all, protecting Alberta’s workers.
“Every other premier is on board with Team Canada except Danielle Smith. Let’s get back to work and save Canada.”
Those leading the charge to stay in Canada agreed. On Wednesday, Forever Canadian organizer Thomas Lukaszuk said the Oct. 19 referendum must be deferred.
“In light of the recent unprovoked trade war launched by U.S. President Donald J. Trump, we submit that this is not the time for unnecessary domestic conflict; this is the time for Albertans to stand together with our fellow Canadians and collectively rally against this unprecedented economic threat,” he said in an open letter to the premier on Wednesday.
Smith said the vote is a separate situation and if anything, the timing reiterates the importance of considering the nation’s unity.
“I think this is an important time for us to be looking at the benefits that come from being a part of Canada. That’s what I’ve been advocating. That’s why I’m voting to remain,” she said.
During her afternoon news conference on the trade dispute, Smith said she opposes tariffs on all fronts but that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s list of proposed counter-tariffs is a good match for the U.S. tariffs that took affect Saturday.
The U.S. has levied import fees on $28 billion worth of Canadian goods, with Canada announcing counter-tariffs that are to kick in Sept. 8 on an array of items, ranging from American steel and aluminum products to video game consoles and fishing rods.
Smith is calling on her fellow premiers and Ottawa to do more to protect Canadian businesses through the fray, including some tax reform measures and reducing interprovincial trade barriers around alcohol.
“No more protectionism — stop talking about it and just do it.”
Smith also called for an accelerated approval timeline for the West Coast pipeline that her government is pitching.
She said she has formed two new committees in response to the breakdown in trade talks, as well as an online portal for businesses to share how they’re being impacted by tariffs.
Smith said one committee, made up of her cabinet members, is to discuss on Thursday following Saskatchewan’s lead by imposing a 50 per cent tax on U.S. alcohol brought into that province.
She said she prefers Premier Scott Moe’s approach to an outright ban on American alcohol in Alberta, noting Canadian products aren’t blocked from going south of the border.
“Maybe this is an opportunity for all provinces to look at if we’re going to match equal for equal.”
—with files from Jack Farrell, The Canadian Press
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