The assumption that the bear market backside is in assumes “main invalidation of long-standing rules in bitcoin market cycles,” stated one analyst.
After dumping to $60,000 through the early February crash, bitcoin rebounded swiftly and jumped to nearly $83,000 every week in the past, posting a large 38% enhance. This brought on many analysts to invest whether or not the bear market had ended.
Nonetheless, the worth motion up to now few days has been contradictory, and BTC slipped to a two-week low of $78,000 yesterday. Analysts should not so satisfied now that the underside is in, and listed below are a few of their warning photographs.
P/L at Excessive Ranges
Ali Martinez brought up the typical dealer’s realized revenue margin, which has reached 17%. He believes it is a “main warning signal” because the metric has hit its highest stage since October 2025, shortly earlier than the large crash that worn out over $19 billion in leveraged positions and was the start of a chronic downtrend that culminated (for now) with a 53% drop from $126,000 to $60,000. He defined that for the reason that common investor is now sitting on substantial beneficial properties, they may be “trying to exit.”
“What stands out to me is the historic context. The final time revenue margins hit 17% whereas Bitcoin was testing its 200-day shifting common as resistance was in March 2022.
That particular alignment signaled the precise second the native prime was in earlier than the downtrend resumed in earnest.”
Physician Revenue Nonetheless Bearish
One of many few analysts who hasn’t modified their perspective on the present market atmosphere is Physician Revenue. His bearish predictions started across the October 2025 peak, and, as his newest submit reveals, he has been placing his cash the place his mouth is, shorting the cryptocurrency from $120,000.
Furthermore, the analyst warned every week in the past that the rebound to $80,000 may be one other bear lure. His new bearish targets are a drop to $50,000 and even decrease if the broader macro situations worsen.
In his newest submit, he warned as soon as once more that almost all merchants are “not prepared for what’s coming.” The chart above doubles down on a path in direction of $50,000.
$BTC: Nobody is prepared for what’s coming, the present standing is as follows:
1. Brief from 120k
2. Lengthy from 71k (30% Closed)
3. Lengthy from 75k (30% Closed)
4. Shorts gathered at 82k (30%)
5. Remaining brief orders lively (70%)Once more, most not prepared for what’s coming pic.twitter.com/oB5N0aTK7m
— Physician Revenue 🇨🇭 (@DrProfitCrypto) May 16, 2026
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Historical past to Be Invalidated
Rekt Capital additionally weighed in on whether or not BTC may need bottomed throughout this cycle, however appeared extremely skeptical. The analyst noted that if buyers consider BTC will not go under $60,000, then they need to consider within the following:
– The Bear Market has shortened to simply 1/3 of the standard time it takes for Bitcoin to backside
– That there was a drastic shallowing throughout Bear Market corrections by ~25% (whereas the historic distinction in shallowing throughout Bear Cycles has been as much as ~10%)
– The earlier Bull Market by no means ended, that value is presently recovering from a Bull Market correction and that the earlier Bull Cycle has lengthened by over 200 days
If bitcoin has certainly bottomed, which doesn’t appear to be the case in response to Rekt Capital’s estimates, then the long-standing rules of BTC market cycles have been invalidated, which is “probabilistically unlikely till confirmed in any other case,” the analyst concluded.
