Youth unemployment has surged to its highest degree in additional than a decade, elevating fears of a “misplaced technology” and intensifying expectations that the Financial institution of England will minimize rates of interest subsequent month.
Figures from the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics present that within the three months to December 2025, the unemployment price amongst 16 to 24-year-olds climbed to 16.1 per cent. That equates to almost 740,000 younger folks out of labor, a rise of round 120,000 in below a 12 months.
Within the first quarter of 2024, earlier than the implementation of upper employer nationwide insurance coverage contributions and minimal wage rises, the youth unemployment price stood at 14.2 per cent, or roughly 620,000 folks.
The rise means younger folks account for almost half of the entire improve in unemployment throughout the economic system over the identical interval, regardless of representing simply 13 per cent of the working-age inhabitants.
Economists warn that whereas spikes in youth joblessness had been seen throughout the 2008 monetary disaster and the Covid-19 pandemic, the present rise is uncommon as a result of it has occurred with out a comparable surge in unemployment amongst older age teams.
Peter Dixon, senior economist on the Nationwide Institute of Financial and Social Analysis, stated youthful staff had been being “priced out of the market”. Louise Murphy of the Decision Basis famous that nearly one in six younger individuals who wish to work can’t discover a job.
Some analysts argue that current fiscal coverage modifications have disproportionately affected entry-level employment. Will increase in employer nationwide insurance coverage contributions and the compression of minimal wage differentials between age bands have raised labour prices for sectors reminiscent of hospitality, retail and leisure, industries that historically present first jobs for varsity leavers and college students.
Additional strain is anticipated in April when extra provisions of the federal government’s Employment Rights Act, together with expanded sick pay entitlements, come into drive.
Regardless of the deteriorating employment figures, there’s a constructive component throughout the information: financial inactivity amongst younger folks has returned near pre-pandemic ranges, suggesting extra are searching for work. Nevertheless, many are struggling to safe positions.
The softening labour market has strengthened expectations that policymakers will transfer to assist development. Monetary markets are more and more assured that the Financial institution of England will minimize its base price from 3.75 per cent to three.5 per cent when its financial coverage committee meets on 19 March.
Analysts at Financial institution of America stated the rise in unemployment and easing wage development “retains us comfy with our base case of a March minimize”, whereas ING economist James Smith described the newest jobs report as holding the central financial institution “firmly on monitor” for a discount.
In its most up-to-date forecasts, the Financial institution of England acknowledged that downturns in employment typically emerge first amongst youthful cohorts, warning that present tendencies might sign broader weak spot in labour demand.
With inflation easing and development subdued, consideration now turns as to if price cuts can assist forestall the current spike in youth unemployment from changing into entrenched.
Amy Ingham
Amy is a newly certified journalist specialising in enterprise journalism at Enterprise Issues with accountability for information content material for what’s now the UK’s largest print and on-line supply of present enterprise information.
