The US can solely decide with certainty that it has destroyed a couple of third of Iran’s huge missile arsenal because the US and Israeli battle on the nation nears its one-month mark, in line with 5 individuals accustomed to the US intelligence.
The standing of round one other third is much less clear however bombings doubtless broken, destroyed or buried these missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, 4 of the sources mentioned. The sources spoke on situation of anonymity given the delicate nature of the knowledge.
One of many sources mentioned the intelligence was comparable for Iran’s drone functionality, saying there was some extent of certainty a couple of third having been destroyed.
The evaluation exhibits that whereas most of Iran’s missiles are both destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran nonetheless has a big missile stock and might be able to get well some buried or broken missiles as soon as combating stops.
The intelligence stands in distinction to President Donald Trump’s public remarks on Thursday that Iran had “only a few rockets left”. He additionally appeared to acknowledge the menace from remaining Iranian missiles and drones to any future US operations to safeguard the economically important Strait of Hormuz.
“The issue with the straits is that this: as an example we do a fantastic job. We are saying we bought 99 % [of their missiles]. One % is unacceptable, as a result of 1 % is a missile going into the hull of a ship that prices a billion {dollars},” Trump mentioned at a televised cupboard assembly on Thursday.
Requested for remark, a Pentagon official mentioned Iranian missile and drone assaults had been down by about 90 % because the begin of the battle. The US army’s Central Command “has additionally broken or destroyed over 66pc of Iranian missile, drone, and naval manufacturing services and shipyards,” the official added.
The White Home didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark.
Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who served 4 excursions in Iraq, declined to remark Reuters‘ findings however he disputed Trump’s claims concerning the influence of the battle on Iran’s arsenal.
“If Iran is wise, they’ve retained a few of their functionality; they don’t seem to be utilizing all the things that they’ve. And so they’re laying in wait,” Moulton mentioned.
Iran’s missiles are prime US targets
The Trump administration has said it aims to weaken Iran’s military by sinking its navy, destroying its missile and drone capability and ensuring that the Islamic republic never has a nuclear weapon.
Central Command has said its operation, known officially as “Epic Fury”, is on schedule or even ahead of plans laid out prior to the February 28 start of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
US says its strikes have hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets as of Wednesday and, according to the Central Command, have sunk 92 percent of the Iranian navy’s large vessels. The US military has published imagery showing attacks on the factories that produce Iran’s weaponry and has stressed that it is not just pursuing missile and drone stockpiles, but the industry that makes them.
Still, Central Command has declined to state precisely how much of Iran’s missile or drone capability has been destroyed.
One source said part of the problem is determining how many Iranian missiles were stockpiled in underground bunkers before the war started. The US has not disclosed its estimate of the size of Iran’s pre-war missile stockpile.
Israeli military officials say Iran had 2,500 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel before the war. Over 335 missile launchers have been “neutralised”, representing 70pc of Iran’s launch capacity, a senior Israeli military official claimed.
Israeli officials have not publicly disclosed how many actual missiles they believe Iran still possesses. They privately acknowledge that eliminating what they estimate to be the last 30pc of Iran’s capacity will be relatively more difficult to achieve.
Iran still firing at neighbors
Despite the heavy pace of US strikes, Iran has demonstrated that it has not run out of weapons.
On Thursday alone, it fired 15 ballistic missiles at the United Arab Emirates, along with 11 drones, according to the UAE’s Defense Ministry.
It has also displayed new capabilities. Last week Iranian forces for the first time fired long-range missiles, targeting the US-UK military base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iran’s missile forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at Paris’ Sciences Po university, said the Trump administration may have overstated how much US strikes have degraded Iranian capabilities.
She pointed to Iran being able to continue to carry out strikes from Bid Kaneh military facility, which has been heavily bombed.
“The fact that they’ve managed to sustain this, I think, indicates the US was overstating the success of its operation,” Grajewski said, adding she believed that Iran still retained about 30pc of its missile capabilities.
Grajewski said Iran had more than a dozen large underground facilities where it has been able to keep launchers and missiles, adding: “The big question is: have these facilities collapsed?”
Iran’s tunnelling
One senior US official voiced skepticism about the United States’ ability to accurately assess Iran’s missile capabilities, in part because it was unclear how many were underground and accessible in some way. “I don’t know if we’ll ever have an accurate number,” the official said.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged the challenge posed by Iran’s tunneling in remarks on March 19, saying: “Iran is a vast country. And just like Hamas and their tunnels (in Gaza), they’ve poured any aid, any economic development, humanitarian aid, into tunnels and rockets.”
“But we are hunting them down methodically, ruthlessly and overwhelmingly, like no other military in the world can do, and the results speak for themselves,” he said, without providing details on the percentage of missiles or drones destroyed.
