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- Prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could remove 8-10m bpd from supply.
- Rising energy prices may fuel inflation, hurt global economic growth.
- Major shipping companies have begun suspending fleet movements.
Crude oil prices soared in Asia on Monday on the back of turmoil in the Middle East following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran.
Futures on Brent crude jumped by 13% to trade above $82 per barrel from Friday’s closing price of $72 in the first minutes of open trading, while those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude rose by nearly 10% to cross $70 per barrel.
The price of Brent, the international benchmark for crude oil, already rose last week ahead of the strikes that began on Saturday.
With the resulting regional turmoil, maritime transport is under threat through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil passes.
The key waterway is mostly but not completely closed, as some Chinese and Iranian vessels are reported to have passed through.
In such a situation, insurance costs become prohibitive, said Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ research at analysts Kpler, predicting that the price could hit $90.
The main shipping companies have already confirmed that they are suspending the passage of their fleets along the route.
Trump’s ‘Achilles heel’
“While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of 8 million to 10 million bpd (barrels per day) of crude oil supply,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst with Rystad Energy, in a note on Saturday.
In theory, oil-importing countries have reserves, with OECD members required to maintain 90 days’ worth of oil stocks but prices above $100 cannot be ruled out.
If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, “no matter how much spare capacity (in the strategic reserves) is not going to fill that gap. That gap is just too big”, said Bakr.
Another analyst at Kpler, Michelle Brouhard, described high oil prices as “the Achilles heel of Trump”.
In her view, Iran is likely to look to keep crude prices high to force Trump to back down, as he promised his electorate low prices, at a time when the United States is already gearing up for mid-term elections at the end of this year.
‘Harmful effect’
Gas prices were also expected to soar on Monday, as Qatar is a key exporter of liquefied natural gas, heightening inflationary risks.
The rise in hydrocarbon prices is bad for the economy.
The last time crude prices climbed above $100 was at the start of the war in Ukraine. Gas prices also soared, which played a major role in a prolonged period of rising prices.
Rising petrol prices, higher energy prices, increased shipping costs and loss of revenue for air transport could have “a harmful effect on growth”, said economist Eric Dor, from the IESEG School of Management in Paris.
“If it’s a matter of three days, it’s not serious. But if it’s over a longer period, then it will have an additional recessionary effect,” he told AFP.
