Struggle-time credibility fuels defence export push as analysts see shift from marginal arms exporter to rising provider
Uqab , a Pakistani drone in IDEAS exhibition. PHOTO: EXPRESS TRIBUNE
KARACHI:
Standing on just lately gained credibility following its battle with India, Pakistan is positioning itself amongst rising international defence exporters, because the nation strains up potential defence export orders value $13 billion, a scale that would materially alter its exterior account dynamics and industrial panorama over the medium time period.
“Submit the success of Bunyan-e-Marsoos, Pakistan has seen an enormous increase to its diplomatic standing with geo-strategic offers and engagements; a key consequence which is rising from these engagements is the defence offers and defence agreements,” famous KTrade Securities Analysis Analyst M Faran Khan in a report.
In keeping with a macro analysis word by KTrade Securities, Pakistan’s defence sector is coming into a part of accelerated outward orientation, pushed by rising geopolitical demand, the profitable deployment of indigenous platforms, and increasing state-to-state defence engagements throughout the Center East, Africa and Central Asia. The estimated $13 billion pipeline contains fighter plane, coach jets, armoured automobiles, drones, naval platforms and ammunition. If materialised, this is able to be equal to greater than 80% of Pakistan’s present international trade reserves and round 3.7% of gross home product.
This potential surge comes in opposition to a backdrop of traditionally modest defence exports. Information from the United Nations COMTRADE database, compiled by Buying and selling Economics, exhibits that Pakistan’s exports of arms and ammunition, components and equipment stood at $22.38 million in 2024. Over the previous decade, annual exports on this class have largely remained within the low tens of thousands and thousands of {dollars}, underscoring the step-change implied by the present pipeline of offers.
Analysts say the distinction this time lies in scale, geopolitical timing and the maturity of Pakistan’s defence platforms. Flagship merchandise such because the JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter plane, Tremendous Mushshak coach plane, Karakoram-8 (Okay-8) jets, armed and reconnaissance drones, armoured automobiles and naval vessels are more and more being marketed as cost-effective options for international locations looking for to diversify suppliers amid rising international defence spending.
Up to now, Pakistan’s defence exports stay overwhelmingly state-led, with manufacturing concentrated in military-run or government-owned entities. These embrace the Pakistan Aeronautical Complicated (PAC) at Kamra, Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT), Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) at Wah, and Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW). These organisations design, manufacture and export jets, tanks, drones, naval platforms and ammunition below government-to-government frameworks.
Nonetheless, Farhan advised The Categorical Tribune that Pakistan’s non-public sector is predicted to progressively enter the defence worth chain, initially as a subcontractor to military-led organisations.
“For the time being, the army-led organisations are producing the jets, tanks, drones and different delicate tools,” Farhan stated. “However with time, Pakistan’s non-public sector can even get into this enterprise as a subcontractor to those organisations, relying on the sensitivity of the tools.”
He added that Pakistan might comply with a mannequin nearer to that of america, the place universities and analysis establishments play a task in analysis and improvement, significantly in software program, electronics and superior engineering, whereas non-public corporations take part in {hardware} manufacturing, techniques integration and providers. “On American strains, universities can contribute to R&D for software program and {hardware}, after which the non-public sector may contribute alongside these strains,” he stated.
The analysis means that such a transition wouldn’t solely increase export capability but in addition create recurring income streams by after-sales providers, upkeep, restore and overhaul (MRO), coaching, spare components and upgrades – areas that always generate long-term greenback inflows past preliminary tools gross sales. The broader macroeconomic implications might be vital. Pakistan’s whole items and providers exports presently stand close to $37 billion yearly, dominated by textiles and agriculture. A profitable growth of defence exports would assist diversify the export base, scale back vulnerability to commodity cycles and ease stress on the stability of funds.
Furthermore, KTrade Securities believes a stronger defence manufacturing ecosystem might generate spillover advantages for civilian expertise sectors, together with avionics, robotics, synthetic intelligence and superior manufacturing, whereas supporting expert employment and industrial upgrading.
Whereas the $13 billion determine stays a pipeline estimate fairly than realised exports, analysts say even partial execution would mark a structural shift for Pakistan, from a marginal arms exporter to a significant participant within the international defence market.
