Milk costs have fallen so sharply amid a glut in provide that dairy farmers Kelly and Ed Seaton count on to lose cash this yr from the 200 pedigree Holstein cows they rear in northwest England, the place the week-old calves are simply discovering their ft.
Throughout Britain, dairy farmers warn milk manufacturing is not worthwhile, leaving many liable to going out of enterprise and accelerating an exodus that has seen the variety of dairy producers fall by 20% since 2019 to about 7,000, based on the Agriculture and Horticulture Growth Board.
The worth paid by processors to many UK dairy farmers has fallen by as much as 15 pence per liter (ppl), or about 40%, since October 2025, as home and world milk manufacturing soars.
UK provide is exceeding the capability of processors reminiscent of cheese and yoghurt makers, and outpacing shopper demand.
“It is merely a matter of an excessive amount of milk out there,” stated Kelly Seaton, whose farm spans 175 acres on the Shropshire-Cheshire border. Her husband’s household has been in dairy farming for greater than a century.
NUMBER OF DAIRY COWS IN UK AT DECADE LOW
US and European milk manufacturing has rebounded this yr after a weak 2025. In Britain, the milking herd numbered 1.6 million cows as of January, the bottom in a decade, but the animals are producing extra milk. Drought circumstances within the UK final yr led farmers to rely extra closely on concentrated feed, instead of grazing, leading to larger milk yields.
Britain is slightly below 90% independent in dairy, however as a result of milk is a globally traded commodity, UK costs are uncovered to components past home management and vulnerable to volatility. The downturn has been far sooner and steeper than analysts anticipated, giving farmers little time to adapt.
Throughout continental Europe, the drop in dairy costs has prompted requires EU emergency help. In January, Italy requested the European Fee to pay farmers to chop manufacturing and subsidize storage, a name it has not heeded.
“For the previous few months, we have really seen a tsunami of milk provide worldwide,” Francois-Xavier Huard, CEO of French dairy affiliation FNIL, stated final month.
SELLING AT LESS THAN COST PRICE
Seaton stated it prices her about 40 pence to supply a liter of milk, however she is being paid 30.5 pence by an area processor, which turns it right into a Pink Leicester‑fashion cheese.
Her revenue this month might be about 20,000 kilos ($26,684) decrease than September’s.
“We’ll undoubtedly make a loss this yr,” she stated, including she would not blame her processor.
Their pricing tracks that of German-owned dairy group Muller which, together with Denmark-based Arla and First Milk, dominates the UK milk processing market.
Arla, the producer of Lurpak butter and Castello cheese, stated final month it expects the worldwide milk surplus to proceed to drive down costs.
“We’re worth takers, somewhat than worth makers – you have not obtained a alternative,” Seaton stated.
It is a related story for Gwyndaf Thomas who rears 300 Friesian cows in Carmarthenshire, southwest Wales, and sells his milk to a processor that turns it into mozzarella.
“We have by no means seen worth cuts on this scale – they’re savage cuts in such a brief interval,” he stated.
Paul Tompkins, whose farm within the Vale of York in northern England rears 500 Holstein cows, stated he is on observe to lose about 600,000 kilos this yr, having made a revenue within the previous two years.
He stated except UK dairy farmers had cost-of-production-aligned contracts with one of many main grocery store teams they have been possible dropping cash.
“The query for us as an business is how do you handle growing worth volatility going ahead,” he stated.
FURTHER PRICE FALLS TO COME?
UK milk manufacturing sometimes surges in spring when extra cows calve, heightening the chance of an excellent bigger surplus that might push costs down additional.
The British dairy sector is value greater than 6 billion kilos a yr to the UK financial system and contributes 20% of agricultural output, based on the agriculture ministry.
Tompkins, who can also be deputy president of the Nationwide Farmers’ Union, stated the federal government might have accomplished extra to assist the business, which can also be grappling with larger labor prices, inheritance tax adjustments, and now sharp rises in gasoline, vitality and fertilizer costs linked to the Iran warfare.
CONSUMERS WANT MORE DAIRY FOODS LONG-TERM
The worth stoop comes simply as demand for dairy meals is predicted to rise. A rising world inhabitants with extra revenue is embracing dairy as an inexpensive protein and ditching ultra-processed meals, whereas nations reminiscent of China are adopting a extra Western-style weight loss plan.
World per-capita demand for contemporary dairy merchandise is forecast to extend by 11% over the last decade to 2033, based on OECD/FAO projections.
The NFU warns that with no extra resilient and worthwhile dairy sector, UK meals safety could possibly be put in danger.
“In the end you change into as an business extra prone to massive companies getting bigger, fewer farmers, fewer processors and folks trying elsewhere to get product in,” stated impartial farm guide Paddy Snodgrass.
Regardless of the awful outlook, Seaton stays stoic: “We simply have to just accept that we’re going to have dangerous instances and hope that the great instances counter the dangerous.”
($1 = 0.7495 kilos)
