ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan is going through an unprecedented agricultural and meals safety disaster following catastrophic floods which have devastated farmland, destroyed infrastructure, and displaced thousands and thousands. The monsoon deluge has induced an estimated $1.4 billion in financial losses, with agriculture bearing the brunt of the devastation.
In line with preliminary estimates, the entire price of the 2025 floods stands at over Rs500 billion ($1.7 billion). Agriculture alone accounts for Rs302 billion ($1 billion), representing practically three-fourths of the entire. The floods have submerged 1.3 million acres of farmland, primarily in Punjab, the nation’s agricultural heartland, in addition to elements of Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Key crops similar to rice, sugarcane, cotton, and maize have been severely impacted, with early assessments suggesting a 15-20% drop in output in affected areas.
The destruction just isn’t restricted to crops. Livestock losses, although smaller in financial phrases at Rs0.5 billion ($2 million), have devastated rural livelihoods. Greater than 8,000 animals have perished, whereas over 516,000 livestock have been evacuated from flood-hit zones. For a lot of households, livestock is an important supply of earnings and diet, making these losses significantly extreme.
The floods have worn out what was anticipated to be a bumper rice and cotton harvest. Farmers in Punjab report near-total destruction of rice paddies and cotton fields. Cotton losses are particularly alarming, with as much as 80% of Bahawalnagar’s crop destroyed, threatening Pakistan’s textile trade, which accounts for greater than half of the nation’s exports.
The ripple results on commerce are extreme. Cotton shortfalls might drive Pakistan to import 737,000 tons, costing $1.06 billion, whereas export losses in textiles, rice, and sugar are projected at $3 billion. This double blow of upper imports and lowered exports is predicted to widen the commerce deficit by practically $6 billion, straining Pakistan’s fragile exterior account.
The floods have additionally triggered a surge in meals costs. Gadgets similar to meat, rice, greens, and sugar – making up about 20% of the Client Worth Index (CPI) basket – are already exhibiting sharp will increase. Preliminary estimates point out that meals inflation might rise by 4.3% month-on-month in September alone, pushing the FY26 CPI forecast to 7.2%, up from a pre-flood estimate of 5.5%. Analysts warn that delayed wheat sowing, shrinking rice exports, and the necessity to import cotton will additional deepen inflationary pressures.
Past financial prices, the human toll is staggering. Greater than two million folks have been affected, with over 2,000 villages inundated. Round one million folks have been evacuated, and 1000’s at the moment are residing in non permanent shelters. Reduction camps, medical websites, and veterinary amenities have been arrange throughout Punjab and Sindh, however authorities warn the disaster is much from over as extra rain is forecast.
The floods have worsened an already fragile meals safety state of affairs. Pakistan, typically known as the “regional grain basket,” now faces acute shortages of staple meals. Analysts estimate that 14.6 million folks in flood-hit areas require pressing meals and agricultural help, with practically half one million on the point of extreme meals insecurity. Shortages of wheat, rice, and greens are anticipated to persist for months, forcing the federal government to extend imports when reserves are already beneath stress.
Consultants warn that the 2025 floods usually are not an remoted occasion however a part of a broader sample of climate-induced disasters. Pakistan ranks among the many 10 most climate-vulnerable international locations regardless of contributing lower than 1% to world greenhouse gasoline emissions. Erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and glacial soften are growing the frequency and depth of floods, posing existential threats to the agrarian financial system. With out pressing reforms in water administration, crop diversification, and catastrophe preparedness, Pakistan dangers recurring cycles of devastation and meals insecurity.
Rebuilding agriculture would require a multi-pronged method. Speedy reduction should attain displaced households and farmers. Farmland restoration via drainage, soil rehabilitation, and provision of inputs is vital. Lengthy-term investments in climate-resilient farming, together with drought-tolerant seeds and environment friendly irrigation, are important. Strengthening provide chains to make sure well timed supply of meals and inputs, together with coverage reforms that combine catastrophe danger discount into nationwide planning, will assist construct resilience.
Because the waters recede, Pakistan’s problem just isn’t solely to get well from this catastrophe but in addition to arrange for the subsequent one. The stakes couldn’t be larger: the livelihoods of thousands and thousands, the soundness of the financial system, and the meals safety of a nation of 250 million folks cling within the stability.
The declaration of an agriculture emergency should not be a short lived measure however the basis of a long-term resilience and restoration plan to make sure sustainable agriculture and meals safety for many years forward.
THE WRITER IS AN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIST
