Retail crypto suffered most since January 2025, whereas ETFs and DATs masked true losses for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, in keeping with Hougan.
Bitwise Asset Administration’s Chief Funding Officer, Matt Hougan, has acknowledged that the cryptocurrency market has been in a full-blown “crypto winter” since January 2025.
The exec mentioned that indicators recommend the downturn could also be nearer to ending than starting.
Optimistic Information Is not Driving Costs
In a current put up titled “The Depths of Crypto Winter,” Hougan explained that, regardless of ongoing optimistic developments in adoption, regulation, and institutional involvement, the market is in a extreme bear market.
Hougan famous that Bitcoin has fallen virtually 39% from its October 2025 all-time excessive, whereas Ethereum is down 53%, and lots of different digital property are performing even worse. He mentioned this shouldn’t be interpreted as a short-term correction or a minor dip, however reasonably as a deep, drawn-out bear market much like earlier crypto winters, together with these in 2018 and 2022. In accordance with him, elements reminiscent of extreme leverage and widespread profit-taking by long-term holders contributed to the present downturn.
Regardless of developments reminiscent of a brand new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, who’s supportive of Bitcoin, growing institutional hiring in crypto, and rising adoption by conventional monetary companies, investor sentiment stays deeply cautious. Hougan mentioned that “Excellent news does not matter within the depths of winter,” and added that these extreme market situations usually finish not with enthusiasm however via exhaustion and sentiment normalization.
The Bitwise CIO additionally mentioned that institutional flows performed an important function in masking the true extent of the 2025 downturn. He cited knowledge from the Bitwise 10 Massive Cap Crypto Index, which confirmed that property like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP skilled smaller declines, between 10% and 20%, largely as a result of assist from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).
Different property, together with Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink, skilled typical bear-market declines of 37% to 46%, whereas Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot noticed losses starting from 62% to 75%. Hougan defined that institutional entry and funding via ETFs and DATs offered a buffer for some property, whereas retail-focused tokens bore the brunt of the market downturn.
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As an example, ETFs and DATs bought over 744,000 Bitcoin throughout the interval, representing roughly $75 billion in assist. With out that institutional shopping for, he estimated Bitcoin might have fallen by round 60% since January 2025. As such, a number of elements might mark the tip of the present crypto winter, in keeping with Hougan, who additionally mentioned,
“I feel we’ll come roaring again sooner reasonably than later. Heck, it has been winter since January 2025. Spring is unquestionably coming quickly.”
BTC’s International Standing Weakens
The depth of the present downturn can also be mirrored in Bitcoin’s standing amongst international property. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin has dropped out of the highest ten property by market capitalization and now ranks thirteenth globally, in keeping with CompaniesMarketCap knowledge from February 2.
Its market cap has declined to roughly $1.56 trillion, down from about $2.35 trillion again in July 2025, when it ranked sixth after rallying previous $119,000.
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