China will impose a further 55% tariff on beef imports that exceed quota ranges from key provider international locations together with Brazil, Australia and the US in a transfer to guard a home cattle business slowly rising from oversupply.
China’s commerce ministry mentioned on Wednesday the entire import quota for 2026 for international locations lined below its new “safeguard measures” is 2.7 million metric tons, roughly consistent with the file 2.87 million tons it imported general in 2024.
The brand new annual quota ranges are set under import ranges for the primary 11 months of 2025 for high provider Brazil in addition to for Australia.
“The rise within the quantity of imported beef has critically broken China’s home business,” the ministry mentioned in saying the measure following an investigation launched final December.
The measure takes impact on January 1 for 3 years, with the entire quota growing yearly.
Beef imports to China fell 0.3% within the first 11 months of this yr to 2.59 million tons.
Chinese language beef imports will decline in 2026 on account of the measures, mentioned Hongzhi Xu, senior analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants.
“China’s beef-cattle farming will not be aggressive in contrast with international locations resembling Brazil and Argentina. This can’t be reversed within the quick time period via technological developments or institutional reforms,” Xu mentioned.
In 2024, China imported 1.34 million tons of beef from Brazil, 594,567 tons from Argentina, 243,662 tons from Uruguay, 216,050 tons from Australia, 150,514 tons from New Zealand, and 138,112 tons from the US.
Within the first 11 months of this yr, Brazil shipped 1.33 million tons of beef to China, in response to Chinese language customs information, effectively above the quota ranges set below Beijing’s new measures.
Additionally this yr, Australian shipments to China have surged, gaining share on the expense of US beef after Beijing in March allowed permits to run out at tons of of American meat vegetation and as President Donald Trump unleashed a tit-for-tat tariff battle. US shipments stood at simply 55,172 tons via November.
Australian beef exports to China stood at 294,957 tons within the first 11 months of 2025.
China’s transfer comes as a worldwide beef scarcity pushes up costs in lots of components of the world, together with to file highs within the US.
Responding to Beijing’s announcement, Mark Thomas, chair of the Western Beef Affiliation in Australia, mentioned: “There’s loads of different international locations that may take our product.”
Luis Rua, secretary at Brazil’s agriculture ministry, mentioned there isn’t any cause “to panic”, telling Reuters that the federal government can negotiate “compensatory measures” with China to offset the influence of the brand new tariffs.
In a phone interview, Rua additionally talked about Brazil’s potential to redirect beef exports to different international locations.
Brazilian business teams, alternatively, expressed concern.
In 2025, Chinese language imports of Brazilian beef totaled roughly 1.7 million tons, equal to some 48% of the quantity exported by Brazil general, mentioned beef foyer Abiec in a press release.
“Given this situation, changes will turn out to be obligatory all through all the provide chain, from manufacturing to export, to keep away from broader impacts,” Abiec famous.
Brazil’s different beef foyer Abrafrigo mentioned the potential influence of China’s safeguard measures may imply a lack of as much as $3 billion in export income for Brazil in 2026.
This yr, Brazil’s complete beef export revenues are estimated at $18 billion, Abrafrigo mentioned.
DOMESTIC PROTECTION
China made its announcement following two extensions of its beef import probe, which officers say doesn’t goal any specific nation.
The tariffs will assist curb the decline in China’s breeding cow stock and purchase time for home beef enterprises to make changes and upgrades, mentioned Zengyong Zhu, a analysis fellow of the Institute of Animal Science of the Chinese language Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Beijing has stepped up coverage help for the meat sector this yr and mentioned in late November that cattle farming had been worthwhile for seven consecutive months.
