When Alan Cole noticed Elon Musk followers eagerly bidding up a contract on the prediction market Kalshi that the Division of Authorities Effectivity (DOGE) may successfully scale back federal spending in a 12 months, he knew he needed to take the wager, based on a narrative about Cole’s winnings in The Wall Street Journal.
If Cole, a global tax accountant, knew something in life it was this: federal spending couldn’t be rapidly whacked, he advised the WSJ. Even when DOGE nixed some federal contracts and laid off employees (which it did), loads of remaining obligations and the skyrocketing federal debt would stay.
So, he wagered his total life financial savings — over $342,000 — to take the counter wager that the U.S. federal finances wouldn’t insta-shrink. He slowly amassed 3% of a Kalshi prediction market that had grown to $12 million (making just a few hedging bets alongside the best way), he advised the WSJ.
When the federal government launched the 2025 year-end spending report on February 20, displaying will increase in comparison with 2024, Cole walked away with $470,300 and a good-looking $128,000 revenue.
