An amazing majority of Canadians need Alberta to stay a part of a unified Canada and would vote for their very own province to do the identical, in response to new information from Ipsos solely for World Information.
A full 81 per cent of respondents exterior of Alberta mentioned they need the Wild Rose province to stay a part of Canada, with simply 9 per cent saying they need the province to depart.
The will for Alberta to stay in Canada was weaker in Quebec, which is having their very own dialog about independence. However 69 per cent of respondents in that province nonetheless wished Alberta to reject separation.
Total, Ipsos mentioned their information means that Canadians are feeling extra united regardless of separatist sentiment taking over the oxygen in Quebec and Alberta.
“The nation’s extra united proper now, particularly across the (commerce) conflict with the USA … and coping with Donald Trump and different points, than they have been in 2019,” mentioned Gregory Jack, a senior vice chairman with Ipsos World Affairs.
“(That’s) even supposing, you recognize, it feels just like the nation is de facto divided with a possible referendum in Quebec and a referendum right here in Alberta.”
Simply 16 per cent of respondents nationally — excluding Albertans — felt that their provinces can be higher off in the event that they separated from Canada, and simply 22 per cent of Albertans agreed. Each numbers are down since Ipsos requested the identical query in 2019, when 33 per cent of Albertans mentioned they’d be higher off alone.
Solely 23 per cent of Canadians exterior of Alberta mentioned they felt much less dedicated to Canada than a number of years in the past, with 28 per cent of Albertans saying they felt that means. Once more, the proportion of Albertans who agreed with the sentiment was down sharply since 2019.
Get every day Nationwide information
Get every day Canada information delivered to your inbox so you will by no means miss the day’s prime tales.
Canadians exterior of Alberta have been much less doubtless than these in Alberta to really feel their province was not getting its justifiable share from Ottawa, with simply 26 per cent of respondents saying their province doesn’t get a good shake. Almost one in two Albertans (48 per cent) advised the pollster their province didn’t get a good deal from Confederation.
Amongst Albertans, that quantity is down from 51 per cent in January 2026 and 65 per cent in 2019.
“The foremost outlier is the measure on whether or not the province will get its justifiable share from Confederation, the place Albertans stay extra doubtless than different Canadians to imagine that is the case,” Ipsos mentioned in its polling outcomes.
“The info recommend Albertans, whereas feeling nearer to the nationwide common on many measures, nonetheless desire a dialogue on advantages from Confederation, however that it doesn’t essentially translate to need to separate.”
Albertans will vote in a referendum subsequent month that asks, amongst different questions, in the event that they need to begin the legally required course of to carry a proper vote on separation. A victory for the separatists on Oct. 19 would kick off campaigning in earnest for each the separatists and people who need the province to stay inside Canada.
Ipsos discovered {that a} robust majority (70 per cent) of Albertans need to stay a part of Canada, whereas 20 per cent need to maintain a referendum on separation. However Ipsos discovered that the separatist vote could also be softer than believed.
If the province strikes to holding a binding referendum on separation, the variety of respondents who would vote to remain rises to 84 per cent, whereas simply 16 per cent would vote for separation. That implies extra folks need to maintain a referendum than need to truly depart the nation.
“Rural Albertans, older Albertans and male Albertans usually tend to say that they need to go and youthful Allbertans, extra city Albertans right here in Calgary or in Edmonton usually tend to see that they’re going to need to keep,” Jack mentioned.
“We must always see maybe some extra motion within the subsequent couple of weeks because the referendum will get nearer, however lots folks have a place on this. I feel that they took it earlier within the marketing campaign they usually haven’t actually modified their place whether or not they’re on the ‘sure’ facet or the ‘no’ facet.”
Each Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Get together are dedicated to campaigning for Alberta to stay a province in Canada — though Ipsos’ had some stunning numbers about which politician is perhaps higher suited to arguing that place with Albertans.
In additional dangerous information for Poilievre, Ipsos’ findings recommend Carney is extra well-liked than he’s in Alberta — historically the Conservatives’ heartland, and the province Poilievre now represents within the Home of Commons.
Simply over half (51 per cent) of Albertans mentioned they’d a beneficial view of Carney, in comparison with 35 per cent who seen the prime minister unfavourably. For Poilievre, assist was extra divided — with 44 per cent of Albertans viewing him favourably, in comparison with 40 per cent unfavourably.
“That’s one thing we don’t typically see in Alberta,” Jack famous.
“(Carney) hasn’t performed a key position to this point within the referendum, however clearly these numbers recommend that he might sooner or later.”
The Ipsos ballot was carried out for World Information between Sept. 18 and 22, and surveyed 1,500 voting-aged Canadians — 600 in Alberta, and 900 in the remainder of Canada. An analogous ballot of 1,500 Canadians can be thought-about correct inside 3.1 share factors. Regional and demographic breakdowns are much less correct than general numbers.
© 2026 World Information, a division of Corus Leisure Inc.
