Vitality skilled Vaqar Zakaria believes solar energy makes “glorious financial sense” — and he lives by it. For over 5 years, his rooftop panels have slashed his payments, generally to zero, even permitting him to promote surplus electrical energy again by way of internet metering.
Final month, he took it additional. After shopping for two electrical automobiles, he has virtually “declared independence” from the nationwide grid. With extra panels and doubled batteries, even his vehicles run on sunshine. “I’m transferring away from their gasoline, and I don’t want their energy,” mentioned the CEO of Hagler Bailly, Pakistan, an Islamabad-based environmental consultancy agency, over the cellphone from Islamabad.
“I name it the hand of God driving my automobile,” Zakaria mentioned.
He’s already seeing financial beneficial properties from his funding. “The electrical energy I generate, together with battery prices, involves about Rs12 ($0.043) per unit, whereas it may be bought to the Islamabad Electrical Provide Firm at round Rs26 ($0.092) per unit.” Nonetheless, he provides that he doesn’t at the moment declare this profit, because it requires appreciable follow-up.
Performing some fast back-of-the-envelope calculations, he in contrast the petrol-run automobiles he used till a couple of months again to the EV he bought a month in the past. “The overall value of working the EV involves about Rs2 ($0.0071) per km utilizing energy generated at dwelling, in comparison with the Rs27 ($0.096) per km I used to be paying earlier for working automobiles on the fossil gasoline.”
This determine doesn’t embrace the common upkeep prices his earlier vehicles required-lubricating oils, oil and air filters, and brakes.
“An EV requires near-zero upkeep,” he added.
Whereas Zakaria can afford a full shift off the grid, most households can’t.
“The photo voltaic panorama will stay unchanged except energy firms introduce profit-sharing fashions that flip shoppers into ‘prosumers’ — each producers and customers of vitality — supported by microfinance to assist cowl upfront prices,” he mentioned. Attaining this is able to require the privatisation of utilities.”
For now, with or with out batteries, photo voltaic vitality has change into a well-liked different for a lot of households. “What’s occurring in Pakistan is kind of vital, as electrical energy shoppers’ dependence on the nationwide grid is falling,” defined Rabia Babar, information supervisor at Renewables First, an Islamabad-based think-and-do tank for vitality and surroundings.
Grid-based electrical energy demand, she identified, dropped 11% in FY25 in comparison with FY22 ranges, largely as a result of extra individuals and companies are switching to photo voltaic.
“Through the day, far much less electrical energy is being drawn from the grid, which implies gas-fired energy vegetation are getting used a lot lower than earlier than.”
The turning level
Haneea Isaad, an vitality finance specialist on the Institute for Vitality Economics and Monetary Evaluation, recalled the time in 2022, because the turning level when individuals realised they wanted a less expensive different. “The costs of liquefied pure gasoline shot up after Russian forces entered Ukraine and the nation confronted a gasoline scarcity, leading to widespread energy outages. Electrical energy costs virtually tripled in simply a few years.”
Those that might afford to, Isaad mentioned, opted for a one-time funding in putting in photo voltaic panels as an alternative of paying for costly and unreliable electrical energy.
In accordance with EMBER, an unbiased clear vitality assume tank, photo voltaic’s share within the vitality combine has risen from 2.9% in 2020 to 32.3% by the top of 2025.
It’s this quiet photo voltaic revolution that will assist trip out the present vitality disaster triggered by the United States-Israel warfare on Iran, which led to the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz, in accordance with a report by Renewables First and the Centre for Analysis on Vitality and Clear Air, printed earlier this week.
“Pakistan’s photo voltaic revolution is quietly redrawing the nation’s vitality map, reducing grid dependence, lowering LNG publicity, and constructing a buffer towards world market shocks that the majority of its neighbours are but to search out,” mentioned Babar, one of many co-authors of the report.
In reality, the report says that Pakistan has prevented over $12 billion in oil and gasoline imports since 2020 resulting from its fast photo voltaic progress — and will save one other $6.3 billion in 2026 alone at present costs.
Lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of CREA, mentioned the photo voltaic increase has minimize import payments and now acts “like an insurance coverage coverage” towards oil and LNG shocks from the Gulf.
Industries are additionally turning to photo voltaic, considerably lowering their want for LNG considerably.
“This shift has had a direct affect on authorities coverage. Pakistan has gone again to its LNG suppliers to renegotiate long-term contracts for the diversion of surplus cargoes to worldwide markets, which at the moment are oversupplied because of the sharp discount in gasoline consumption,” mentioned Babar.
Pakistan has been importing LNG since 2015, after home reserves declined. It has been primarily used within the energy sector — accounting for practically 1 / 4 of Pakistan’s electrical energy provide — adopted by the economic sector.
Provided from Qatar by way of the Strait of Hormuz, LNG has change into much less enticing resulting from excessive costs for trade and the rising shift to photo voltaic in properties. With some LNG touchdown in Pakistan earlier than the battle started and home gasoline filling the hole from affected cargoes, provides could also be sufficient to final till mid-April.
“Pakistan has traditionally been susceptible to unstable world LNG costs, which pressure on overseas trade reserves when costs spike,” Babar mentioned.
Isaad agreed. “Photo voltaic has supplied a buffer. With the ability sector additionally counting on coal imports from Indonesia and South Africa, provide pressures are unlikely to pose an issue within the close to time period. Seasonal hydropower and gentle climate are additionally more likely to forestall a direct spike in LNG-based energy demand. For now, Pakistan has been spared — in contrast to Bangladesh and India, which have been hit the toughest in South Asia.”
Not out of the woods but
However the photo voltaic panels haven’t shielded Pakistanis from the rising oil costs. The nation noticed a 20% bounce — the best in its historical past — with petrol and diesel costing $1.15 and $1.20 per litre, respectively. As transport drives the economic system, larger oil costs shortly pushed up fares and the price of groceries.
In response, Zakaria mentioned the disaster highlights a transparent path ahead: embrace EVs, cut back diesel dependence, and increase renewables. “Start with two-wheelers,” he recommended, although a full EV mass transit system could be preferrred for Pakistan. He added that shifting freight from vans to rail might considerably minimize gasoline prices.
He mentioned he helps the oil rationing and austerity measures taken by the federal government.
Final week, addressing the nation, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif introduced these measures on tv.
“All the area is at the moment in a state of warfare,” he mentioned, outlining steps, together with a four-day workweek for presidency workers and spring holidays for colleges from March 16 to the top of the month. He additionally mentioned 50 p.c of presidency workers would work at home on a rotating foundation and advisable related preparations for the non-public sector.
Greater schooling establishments have shifted to on-line lessons to avoid wasting gasoline, as have conferences throughout federal and provincial governments. Gas allowances for presidency workplaces have additionally been diminished.
Below the federal government’s austerity measures, federal and provincial cupboard members will forgo two months’ salaries and allowances, whereas lawmakers’ pay will probably be diminished by 25 p.c. Ministers, parliamentarians, and officers could journey overseas solely when important — and should fly economic system. Weddings will probably be capped at 200 company, served with a single-dish meal.
The Human Value
However these measures have introduced little reduction to Saba Nasreen’s family funds. The 52-year-old mom of two, who works as a home assist, mentioned, “Rising gasoline costs have actually crippled us; when gasoline prices go up, meals costs observe. We hardly purchase fruit or meat; now even milk and greens are past our vary,” she mentioned.
With Eid ul Fitr simply days away, she mentioned, “This would be the first Eid in so long as I can keep in mind that I received’t be making sheer khurma for my daughters,” referring to the standard candy vermicelli dish ready in lots of Muslim households throughout the subcontinent.
“The value of a field of vermicelli has doubled this 12 months, from Rs150 ($0.53) to Rs300 ($1.07),” she mentioned, including, “In any case, the assault on Iran has already dimmed our festivities; I’m not glad inside, my coronary heart feels heavy.”
For a lot of, the photo voltaic revolution provides hope — however for households like Nasreen’s, the battle continues.
Zofeen Ebrahim is an unbiased journalist. She posts on X @zofeen28
This text was initially printed within the Inter Press Service information company’s UN Bureau. It has been reproduced on Geo.television with permission.
