OPEC says geopolitical developments need close monitoring, no forecast changes yet
A woman passes by a logo of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the United Nations climate change conference COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan November 13, 2024. Photo: Reuters
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia sharply increased oil production in February ahead of US and Israeli strikes on Iran and kept its forecasts for relatively strong global oil demand growth this year.
Saudi Arabia boosted output and exports as part of a contingency plan in case any US strike on Iran disrupted Middle East supplies, sources familiar with the plan said in February. The attack came on February 28 and the ensuing conflict has disrupted oil exports, forced production stoppages and sent prices soaring.
OPEC, in a monthly report on its website, said that Saudi Arabia told the group its February supply to the market was 10.111 million barrels per day, while production reached 10.882m bpd. The kingdom reported January output of 10.10m bpd.
Saudi Arabia has long intervened in oil markets, adding barrels during disruptions or curbing output when it sees oversupply. The February rise echoed a contingency plan last year when it moved more oil to storage, the sources said last month.
OPEC also said output by the wider OPEC+, which includes other producers such as Russia, averaged 42.72m bpd in February, up 445,000 bpd from January, citing secondary sources.
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“Supply to market” usually covers exports plus domestic refinery and power-plant use, excluding oil shifted into storage. As such, Saudi Arabia’s February supply to the market stayed close to its OPEC+ quota, even as production ran well above the target.
OPEC left unchanged its forecast that world oil demand will grow by 1.38m bpd this year. Its 2026 demand estimate remains higher than those of other analysts, including the International Energy Agency.
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“Ongoing geopolitical developments warrant close monitoring, although their impact, if any, on the growth forecast may be too early to determine,” OPEC said in the report, referring to economic growth.
The Saudi and OPEC increases in February came despite OPEC+ agreeing to keep output targets steady for the first quarter of the year.
