OPEC+ may consider a larger-than-planned output increase of 411,000 barrels per day at a meeting on Sunday, two sources close to the talks said, after Saudi Arabia and the UAE raised exports in anticipation of possible disruption to oil markets from US-Israeli strikes on Iran carried out on Saturday.
Eight members of OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – were already scheduled to meet on Sunday at 1100 GMT.
Despite expectations that oversupply would weigh on the market, oil prices have risen this year on fears that a conflict between Iran and the US would disrupt Middle East supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil
Delegates had earlier said the eight countries would likely agree to a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day in oil output for April, as the group prepares for summer demand, led by the US driving season, and as crude prices had already risen on expectations of a US attack on Iran.
An April increase would end a three-month pause in output hikes.
Both sources, who declined to be identified by name, said an increase of 411,000 bpd – three times the volume initially floated – was now being considered. One of them said it could be even larger, at 548,000 bpd.
OUTPUT INCREASE ALREADY UNDER WAY
Evidence has mounted that the biggest Middle East producers had already boosted exports as concern built that the US would strike Iran, raising the risk of disruption of oil exports.
UAE oil producer Abu Dhabi is set to export more of its flagship Murban crude in April, two trade sources said on Friday.
Saudi Arabia, the leading OPEC producer, has increased its oil production and exports as part of a contingency plan, sources told Reuters this week.
The eight OPEC+ members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd from April through December 2025, roughly 3% of global demand, before pausing further increases for January to March 2026 due to seasonal weakness.
