Consultants blame lack of demand forecasting as predictable shortages recur annually
KARACHI:
Each Ramazan, fruit costs skyrocket throughout Pakistan. Shoppers cry foul, vent anger on social media and flow into boycott calls, whereas consultants provide acquainted explanations. But the federal government has nonetheless not devised an answer to the predictable spike in demand and constrained provide, a persistent, virtually primitive market failure in a quarter-past-Twenty first-century world outfitted with essentially the most superior know-how in human historical past.
Every year, costs of key iftar objects, together with bananas, apples, guavas and tomatoes, rise sharply within the weeks main as much as the holy month. Officers sometimes attribute the development to increased consumption. Sector stakeholders, nonetheless, argue that with out data-driven planning, farmers and markets stay unable to regulate provide effectively, permitting merchants to dominate pricing.
“There isn’t a evaluation in Pakistan of how demand for main vegetables and fruit adjustments throughout Ramazan or throughout months,” mentioned Mahmood Nawaz Shah, president of the Sindh Abadgar Board. “Have we analysed 10 or 15 years of information to establish which crops face shortages wherein season? The reply is not any.” Agriculture economists notice that Ramazan consumption patterns are extremely predictable in contrast with most different meals demand cycles. Fruit consumption rises as households embrace it in iftar meals, whereas resort and marriage ceremony catering exercise declines. Even with this blended demand profile, consultants say authorities might nonetheless map web consumption traits and information manufacturing accordingly.
As a substitute, crop choices are largely left to fragmented farmer expectations and dealer alerts. Growers usually try to time harvests for Ramazan primarily based on worth assumptions somewhat than dependable market intelligence. As an illustration, banana growers sometimes attempt to speed up harvests by just a few weeks to coincide with Ramazan demand. Some melon farmers plant earlier in winter so the fruit reaches markets throughout the fasting month. However as a result of Ramazan shifts about 10 days earlier annually on the lunar calendar, such planning stays inherently unstable.
The absence of demand forecasting additionally prevents stakeholders from figuring out which commodities truly face shortages versus these with enough provide. Greens reminiscent of potatoes and cabbage usually stay plentiful throughout Ramazan, but others expertise sharp worth spikes on account of perceived shortage.
Muhammad Ali Iqbal, President of Concave Agri Providers, mentioned a lot of Pakistan’s fruit provide throughout Ramazan is both low season or transitioning between areas, making advance provide planning much more essential. “All main fruits are both ending or beginning their seasons round this time,” he mentioned. “With out demand projections, farmers and merchants depend on hypothesis.”
Stakeholders argue that the federal government might use historic worth and manufacturing information to establish round 15 high-consumption Ramazan commodities and forecast anticipated demand gaps a number of months prematurely. Farmers might then be inspired, via extension companies or incentives, to regulate planting schedules or acreage.
Such planning is widespread in additional formalised agricultural economies, the place seasonal consumption occasions, from holidays to export home windows, are built-in into crop calendars and provide chains. Pakistan, in contrast, lacks even fundamental datasets linking consumption cycles to manufacturing patterns. “There isn’t a institutional capability monitoring which vegetables and fruit see recurring Ramazan spikes,” Shah mentioned. “With out that, you can not information farmers on what to develop or when.”
Analysts add that the planning hole interacts with different structural weaknesses, notably restricted chilly storage and unreliable rural electrical energy. As a result of farmers can not retailer produce cheaply, they’re unable to easy provide throughout weeks, rising dependence on merchants who management storage and launch timing.
The result’s a recurring cycle: farmers plant primarily based on guesswork, merchants anticipate Ramazan demand and maintain inventory, and shoppers face worth surges framed as inevitable seasonal results.
Consultants emphasise that improved forecasting wouldn’t essentially suppress farmer incomes. As a substitute, it might stabilise each costs and manufacturing by aligning provide extra carefully with predictable consumption peaks.
“If the objective is simply to cap costs, farmers lose incentive,” Shah mentioned. “However in the event you encourage provide forward of demand, each farmers and shoppers profit.” Agriculture specialists counsel a phased strategy: short-term evaluation of historic Ramazan worth behaviour; medium-term crop advisories and storage assist; and long-term funding in controlled-environment farming to offset seasonal gaps as Ramazan continues to shift via the calendar.
