Bitcoin may be shaping and bottoming structure that looks like the formation seen at the end of the 2018 bear market, according to crypto analyst Osemka. After reviewing past macro lows, the analyst is of the notion that the current Bitcoin setup is not similar to the 2022 cycle but instead is closer to the drawn-out descending pattern that preceded BTC’s price action in 2019.
The comparison is based on a falling resistance structure, a potential liquidity sweep below $60,000, a bear market bottom, and the development of a bullish divergence on multiple timeframes.
Descending Structure Points To Bear Market Bottom
Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,000, meaning it has dropped by about half from its October 2025 peak price of $126,080. By that measure, BTC has already entered bearish territory, and investor sentiment of extreme fear also supports that view.
In an analysis posted on XOsemka explained that after reviewing all major macro lows on Bitcoin, the current setup resembles the 2018 bear market bottom more closely than the 2022 bear market bottom. The chart he shared shows a descending pattern with a falling blue trendline that connects successive lower highs made by Bitcoin’s price action in February.
The structure shows price trading below the descending resistance, much like the late-2018 environment when Bitcoin continued to grind lower. According to the analyst, the present pattern appears to be forming a similar liquidity setup, and Bitcoin’s price is expected to gradually bleed lower before a final decisive move.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @Osemka8 on X
Liquidity Hunt To $60,000, 3D Bullish Divergence As Bottom Signal
An important part of Osemka’s bottom prediction is the possibility of a liquidity sweep just below $60,000. The chart includes a dotted horizontal line near that level as a downside target where remaining liquidity may sit.
The idea is that if Bitcoin continues to follow the 2018 price action, then it could continue to fall and briefly dip below $60,000, which would then absorb sell-side liquidity before stabilizing. If a comparable liquidity hunt unfolds, it could complete the descending pattern. Until then, the analyst’s message is patience.
Another major factor highlighted in the chart is the formation of a 3D bullish divergence. This is a case where BTC prints lower lows across multiple time frames, but a momentum indicator like RSI, MACD, or Stochastic makes a higher low.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,100 and is only a 7.8% correction move away from breaking below $60,000. Bitcoin is increasingly at risk of breaking below this level, with the fear and greed index at an extreme fear level of 11. This trend is reflected in persistent outflows from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds have now recorded five straight weeks of net withdrawals.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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