Bitcoin Realized Losses Have Hit Bear Market Ranges

Information from Glassnode exhibits loss-taking now outweighs income, a shift not often seen exterior deep bear phases.

Bitcoin’s on-chain information has flashed a sign that has traditionally come earlier than extended bear market situations, with the Realized Revenue/Loss Ratio confirming a regime shift in the direction of loss-dominant promoting.

The transfer means that liquidity is evaporating from the market, forcing traders to appreciate losses relatively than e book income, a dynamic final seen throughout the deepest crypto winter durations of 2018 and 2022.

Key Metric Flips Beneath 1 Signaling Capitulation Threat

In line with information from on-chain analytics agency Glassnode, the 90-day easy shifting common of the Realized Revenue/Loss Ratio has formally fallen beneath 1. The metric, which compares the entire worth of BTC offered at a revenue versus these offered at a loss, signifies that loss-taking now outweighs profit-taking throughout the community.

“This confirms a full transition into an extra loss-realization regime,” Glassnode analysts famous in a February 24 replace on X.

The agency highlighted that traditionally, breaks beneath this threshold have continued for six months or extra earlier than reclaiming the 1 stage, a restoration that usually alerts a “constructive return of liquidity to the market.”

The studying represents the end result of a pattern that started in early February, when the ratio was hovering close to 1.5, and late January, when it stood round 1.32.

Moreover, the present on-chain construction exhibits confluence with earlier bear market bottoms. CryptoQuant contributor _OnChain observed that indicators tied to whale exercise, notably Unspent Profitability Ratios (UPR) for numerous holder cohorts, have reached ranges just like Could-June 2022, a interval that preceded vital draw back earlier than the last word backside shaped later that yr.

Market Context and Historic Parallels

The present sell-side stress follows a dramatic cooldown in profit-taking that occurred in December 2025. Glassnode’s earlier information confirmed that 7-day common realized income crashed from over $1 billion in This autumn 2025 to simply $183.8 million by December, which quickly allowed Bitcoin to stabilize and rally above $96,000 in early January.

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Nonetheless, that stabilization proved short-lived as macroeconomic headwinds intensified, with Bitcoin buying and selling at roughly $63,200 on the time of writing, down 3.6% in 24 hours and virtually 29% over the previous month. The asset can be practically 50% beneath its all-time excessive reached in October 2025.

Analysts have attributed the continued weak point to a mixture of macro components relatively than a structural breakdown in Bitcoin’s fundamentals. US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff bulletins, together with a proposed enhance in taxes on world imports, have rattled threat belongings throughout conventional and crypto markets.

Regardless of the bearish alerts, some analysts keep that Bitcoin’s long-term cycle stays intact. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan not too long ago framed present volatility as a mandatory “teenage state” of financial evolution, arguing that maturing belongings should go by way of speculative gradients earlier than attaining institutional stability.

Nonetheless, chartist Ali Martinez warned {that a} three-day “loss of life cross” could possibly be confirmed in late February, which foreshadowed remaining draw back strikes in 2014, 2018, and 2022, traditionally resulting in further declines of 30% to 50%.