GCC company fundamentals are anticipated to stay broadly secure in 2026, underpinned by continued government-led capital expenditure at the same time as softer oil costs weigh on fiscal flexibility, in keeping with Fitch Rankings.
In its latest GCC Corporates Outlook 2026, the rankings company maintained a impartial stance for the yr forward, citing largely unchanged working circumstances throughout the area.
Ongoing public sector funding, significantly in infrastructure and vitality, is predicted to help regular earnings for corporations, whereas diversification programmes in Saudi Arabia and the UAE proceed to channel funding into non-energy sectors similar to tourism, logistics and manufacturing.
Fitch forecasts non-oil GDP development throughout the GCC at 3.7 per cent in 2026, barely beneath the 4.2 per cent recorded beforehand however nonetheless supportive of company exercise. Regulatory reforms aimed toward broadening financial bases are additionally anticipated to underpin a sturdy pipeline of IPOs, supported by deep native capital markets and coverage backing.
GCC companies navigate decrease oil costs
The company cautioned, nonetheless, that decrease oil value assumptions, with Brent forecast to common round $63 a barrel in 2026, will constrain each public- and private-sector budgets. Whereas costs stay above fiscal breakeven ranges for many GCC producers, diminished fiscal headroom may restrict the tempo of latest spending in some markets.
Company stability sheets are anticipated to stay resilient general, with round 95 per cent of Fitch-rated GCC issuers carrying secure outlooks. Leverage is projected to edge up modestly in 2026 as corporations step up capital spending, significantly in vitality, utilities and actual property, however refinancing dangers are seen as manageable. Many issuers have pushed out debt maturities to past 2027, lowering near-term funding stress.
Fitch famous that greater funding prices and shrinking leverage headroom will pose higher challenges for extra cyclical and extremely leveraged sectors, together with industrials, retail and a few homebuilders. Against this, nationwide oil corporations are anticipated to proceed producing sturdy money flows resulting from low lifting prices and disciplined capital allocation.
Debt capital market exercise can be anticipated to stay energetic in 2026, with corporates tapping each bond and sukuk markets to fund enlargement and handle liabilities. Sukuk is prone to stay the popular funding instrument for a lot of issuers, supported by sustained demand from regional Islamic banks and institutional buyers.
General, Fitch stated the mix of public sector funding, diversification reforms and secure working environments ought to enable GCC corporates to navigate decrease oil costs whereas sustaining broadly regular efficiency by 2026.
