The Dubai residential property market is anticipated to shift right into a extra normalised section in 2026, with worth development moderating sharply from current highs, whereas the workplace sector is forecast to stay a standout performer, in accordance with the most recent outlook from ValuStrat.
In its Dubai Actual Property Outlook 2026, ValuStrat forecasts residential capital good points of round 10 per cent subsequent 12 months, down from 19.8 per cent in 2025, because the market cools following a number of years of fast appreciation.
Within the consultancy’s base case, residential rents are anticipated to be broadly flat (0 per cent), reflecting a softer leasing cycle and tighter affordability circumstances.
Against this, workplace capital values and rents are each projected to rise by round 15 per cent, supported by ongoing company growth and a persistent scarcity of Grade A provide in prime areas.
Dubai actual property forecast
Haider Tuaima, Managing Director and Head of Actual Property Analysis at ValuStrat, mentioned:
“Dubai’s underlying demand drivers stay intact into 2026, however efficiency is more likely to turn out to be extra segmented.
“Our base case assumes slower general residential worth development, with villas persevering with to outperform residences attributable to provide composition and life-style demand.
“In workplaces, the imbalance between prime demand and new provide stays the core assist for continued rental and capital worth development.”
ValuStrat expects residential costs to proceed rising in 2026, however at a slower tempo and with a widening efficiency hole between property sorts. Villas and townhouses are forecast to extend by 17.7 per cent, considerably outperforming residences, that are anticipated to rise by 7.4 per cent.
Demand is projected to stay strongest for single-family properties, which account for lower than 20 per cent of Dubai’s complete residential inventory, whereas the event pipeline stays closely skewed towards residences.
The residential provide pipeline for 2026 is forecast at 131,234 models, comprising roughly 81 per cent residences and 19 per cent villas and townhouses.
ValuStrat notes that annual supply forecasts are sometimes revised attributable to development timelines, which can have an effect on precise provide in 2026. Transaction volumes are additionally anticipated to chill, reflecting a slower cadence of latest off-plan mission launches in comparison with earlier years.
Dubai rental market 2026
In its base case, ValuStrat forecasts flat residential rental development (0 per cent) in 2026. The outlook highlights that leasing markets are more and more formed by affordability constraints, evolving tenant preferences, and the stability between new provide and family formation.
Dubai’s workplace market is anticipated to stay supply-constrained in prime submarkets, underpinning continued development in each capital values and rents. ValuStrat forecasts round 15 per cent development in workplace capital values and rents in 2026, moderating from stronger good points recorded in 2025.
Primarily based on developer estimates, 153,122 sq. metres (1.65 million sq. ft) of workplace gross leasable space is anticipated to be delivered in 2026, bringing Dubai’s complete workplace inventory to 9.94 million sq. metres (107 million sq. ft).
Past residential and workplaces, ValuStrat’s outlook highlights continued assist for hospitality efficiency, underpinned by Dubai’s positioning as a worldwide tourism and occasions hub. Within the industrial sector, demand is anticipated to proceed outpacing provide, supporting additional worth development.
Retail efficiency, nevertheless, stays formed by structural shifts in shopper spending patterns and ongoing e-commerce penetration, because the sector continues to regulate to altering market dynamics.
