The UAE is about to outperform the worldwide financial system in 2026 after Customary Chartered raised its GDP development forecast for the nation to five per cent.
The improve displays the UAE’s sturdy commerce efficiency, resilient non-oil financial system and rising function as a world connector amid fragmented commerce flows.
The revised outlook locations the UAE properly forward of projected world development of three.4 per cent subsequent yr, in keeping with Customary Chartered International Analysis.
UAE development outlook upgraded
In its newest International Focus report, Customary Chartered International Analysis raised its 2026 GDP development forecast for the UAE to five per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 4 per cent.
The financial institution attributes the stronger outlook to shifting world provide chains and a buoyant home market, that are anticipated to offset the impression of softer oil costs.
Sturdy non-oil exercise, supported by beneficial demographics and a thriving property sector, is forecast to broaden by 4.5 per cent in 2026.
Overseas commerce tipped to succeed in $1tn
Amid a extra fragmented world commerce atmosphere, Customary Chartered forecasts the UAE’s complete international commerce to succeed in the $1tn mark in 2026. The UAE–Asia commerce hall is predicted to account for one-third of that quantity, underscoring the nation’s rising function in east–west commerce flows.
Rola Abu Manneh, CEO of UAE, Center East and Pakistan at Standard Chartered, stated: “The UAE stays a vivid spot on the worldwide map, with the nation anticipated to stay on observe to ship development at potential for 2 consecutive years in 2026. As we glance towards the projected $tn in international commerce volumes, the UAE is quickly cementing its standing as a super-connector, navigating seamlessly via world commerce fragmentations and thriving inside them.”
The UAE can also be anticipated to take care of twin fiscal and present account surpluses, supported by deep home liquidity. Deposit development continues to outpace private-sector credit score enlargement, which stood at 9.1 per cent year-on-year in mid-2025.
Because of this, the UAE has the bottom loan-to-deposit ratio within the Gulf Cooperation Council, giving native banks headroom to pursue cross-border lending alternatives. Customary Chartered highlighted Saudi Arabia as a key market, the place interbank rates of interest stay elevated.
International outlook: US, China and Europe
Past the UAE, Customary Chartered International Analysis raised its US development forecast for 2026 to 2.3 per cent from 1.7 per cent, citing sturdy enterprise funding, company tax cuts and accelerating adoption of synthetic intelligence.
The financial institution expects the US labour market to start recovering within the second half of 2026 as companies adapt to increased tariffs amid sturdy home demand.
China’s 2026 development forecast was additionally lifted to 4.6 per cent from 4.3 per cent, with 2025 development on observe to succeed in 4.9 per cent.
Whereas export development is predicted to reasonable in 2026, it ought to stay supported by the latest US–China commerce truce and continued diversification of export markets, regardless of elevated commerce dangers forward of the US midterm elections.
The euro space’s 2026 development forecast was nudged as much as 1.1 per cent from 1.0 per cent, though prospects stay muted resulting from commerce pressures and uneven efficiency throughout member economies.
In Asia, export-driven development held up higher than anticipated in 2025, however Customary Chartered expects momentum to reasonable in 2026 as front-loading of exports fades and political uncertainty weighs on some markets.
Dangers and upside potential
Madhur Jha, International Economist and Head, Thematic Analysis, stated: “Whereas the 2026 development outlook is benign, it comes with elevated dangers from a number of sources. Geopolitical dangers abound, arising not simply from key upcoming elections and ongoing conflicts, but additionally from the rise of alliances that purpose to problem the US-led world order.
“Not all dangers are to the draw back. AI-related productiveness beneficial properties may begin to filter via sooner than presently anticipated, lifting development not simply within the US and China but additionally globally.
“Whereas tariffs are unlikely to be lowered additional, world commerce development might stay resilient because the diversification of commerce companions permits different economies to achieve a much bigger share of trade-related financial beneficial properties.”
