True Ventures co-founder Jon Callaghan doesn’t assume we’ll be utilizing smartphones the way in which we do now in 5 years — and perhaps in no way in 10.
For a enterprise capitalist whose agency has had some large winners over its twenty years – from shopper manufacturers like Fitbit, Ring, and Peloton, to enterprise software program makers HashiCorp and Duo Safety – that’s greater than armchair theorizing; it’s a thesis on which True Ventures is actively betting.
True hasn’t gotten this far by following the gang. The Bay Space agency has largely operated beneath the radar regardless of managing roughly $6 billion throughout 12 core seed funds and 4 “choose,” opportunity-style funds that it has used to pour extra capital into portfolio corporations which might be gaining momentum. Whereas different VCs have grown extra promotional – constructing private manufacturers on social media and podcasts to draw founders and deal movement – True has gone in the other way, quietly cultivating a good community of repeat founders. The technique appears to be working: in keeping with Callaghan, the agency boasts 63 exits with good points and 7 IPOs amid a portfolio of some 300 corporations assembled over its 20-year historical past.
Three of True’s 4 current exits within the fourth quarter of 2025 concerned repeat founders who got here again to work with the agency once more after earlier successes, says Callaghan. Nonetheless, it’s Callaghan’s eager about the way forward for human-computer interplay that actually stands out in a sea of AI hype and mega-rounds.
“We’re not going to be utilizing iPhones in 10 years,” Callaghan says flatly. “I form of don’t assume we’ll be utilizing them in 5 years – or let’s say one thing totally different that’s somewhat safer – we’re going to be utilizing them in very alternative ways.”
His argument is straightforward: our telephones are awful at being the interface between people and intelligence. “The best way we take them out proper now to ship a textual content to verify this or ship you some message or write an e mail – [that’s] tremendous inefficient, [and] not an excellent interface,” he explains. “[They’re] liable to error, liable to disruption [of] our regular lives.”
So certain is he of this that True has been spending years exploring various interfaces – software-based, hardware-based, every thing in between. It’s the identical intuition that led True to wager early on Fitbit earlier than wearables have been apparent, to spend money on Peloton after a whole bunch of different VCs stated ‘no thanks,’ and to again Ring when founder Jamie Siminoff stored operating out of cash and even the judges on “Shark Tank” turned him away. Every time, the wager appeared questionable, says Callaghan. Every time, the wager was on a brand new method for people to work together with expertise that felt extra pure than what got here earlier than.
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The newest manifestation of this thesis is Sandbar, a {hardware} system that Callaghan describes as a “thought companion” — or, in additional mundane phrases, a voice-activated ring worn on the index finger. Its singular goal: capturing and organizing your ideas via voice notes. It’s not attempting to be one other Humane AI Pin or compete with Oura’s well being monitoring. “It does one factor rather well,” Callaghan says. “However that one factor is a basic human behavioral want that’s lacking from expertise right now.”
The concept isn’t to passively document ambient audio however to be there when an concept strikes, serving as a form of thought associate. It’s hooked up to an app, leverages AI, and, in keeping with Callaghan, represents a really totally different philosophy about how we should always work together with intelligence.
What drew True to Sandbar founders Mina Fahmi and Kirak Hong wasn’t simply the product, although. “After we met Mina, we have been simply completely aligned on imaginative and prescient,” Callaghan remembers. True’s crew had already been considering for years about various interfaces, making focused investments round that chance. They’d met with dozens of founders, consequently. However the strategy of Fahmi and Hong – who beforehand labored collectively on neural interfaces at CTRL-Labs, a startup acquired by Meta in 2019 – stood out. “It’s about what [the ring] allows. It’s in regards to the habits it allows that we are going to very quickly understand we will’t dwell with out.”
There’s an echo right here of Callaghan’s outdated line about Peloton: “It’s not in regards to the bike.” To some, the bike – even its earliest iteration – was compelling. However Peloton was actually in regards to the habits it enabled and the neighborhood it created; the bike was simply the vessel.
This philosophy of betting on new behaviors — not simply new devices — additionally explains how True has managed to remain disciplined about capital. At the same time as AI startups elevate a whole bunch of thousands and thousands at billion-dollar valuations out of the gate, True insists that it’s in a position to follow what it does finest, which is to put in writing seed checks of $3 million to $6 million for 15% to twenty% possession in startups that it typically will get to see first.
Callaghan says True will elevate more cash to fund what’s working, however he’s not inquisitive about elevating billions of {dollars}. “Like, why? You don’t want that to construct one thing wonderful right now.”
That very same measured strategy colours his view of the broader AI increase. Whereas he says (when requested) that he believes OpenAI may quickly be price a trillion {dollars}, and whereas he calls this probably the most highly effective compute wave we’ve seen, Callaghan sees warning indicators within the round financing offers backing hyperscalers and their $5 trillion in projected CapEx spending on information facilities and chips. “We’re in a really capital intense a part of the cycle, and that’s worrisome,” he notes.
That stated, he’s optimistic about the place the true alternatives lie. Callaghan thinks the best worth creation is forward of us – not within the infrastructure layer however within the utility layer, the place new interfaces will allow solely new behaviors.
All of it comes again to his core investing philosophy, which sounds nearly romantic — the form of pitch-perfect VC knowledge that may ring hole from most individuals: “It needs to be scary and lonely and you ought to be referred to as loopy,” Callaghan says about early-stage investing carried out proper. “And it needs to be actually blurry and ambiguous, however you ought to be with a crew that you just actually imagine in.” 5 to 10 years later, he says, you’ll know when you have been on to one thing.
Both method, based mostly on True’s monitor document of betting on {hardware} that many others missed – health trackers, linked bikes, good doorbells, and now thought-capturing rings – it’s price paying consideration when Callaghan says the telephone’s days are numbered. Being early is the entire level — and the pattern traces help his thesis: the smartphone market is successfully saturated, rising at barely 2% yearly, whereas wearables — smartwatches, rings, and voice-enabled gadgets — are increasing at double-digit charges.
One thing’s shifting in how we wish to work together with expertise, and True is putting its bets accordingly.
Pictured above, Sandbar’s Stream ring. For far more from our dialog with Callaghan, tune in to the StrictlyVC Download podcast subsequent week; new episodes drop each Tuesday.
