‘Confirmed oil reserves’ is at all times a difficult topic as a result of the numbers reported are sometimes deceptive and topic to uneven fluctuations.
Which is why specialists are puzzled at President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US and Pakistan had concluded a deal, whereby the 2 nations would work collectively to develop Pakistan’s huge oil reserve, in a rustic that could be a giant petroleum importer.
Up to now, proof of this `reserve’ is barely higher than dismal. Pakistan has seen a collection of unsuccessful offshore exploration makes an attempt. Its confirmed recoverable typical crude oil reserves of between 234 million and 353 million barrels by completely different estimates, place it across the fiftieth place on the planet.
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In actual phrases, due to this fact, that is simply 0.021 per cent of the global oil reserves. For Pakistan, at present consumption price, its reserves would cowl lower than two years with out imports.
India, in distinction, which is the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer, has round 4.9 billion barrels of oil reserves, rating among the many prime 25 globally. That’s roughly 0.29 per cent of the world’s total oil reserves.
Says former Indian excessive commissioner to Pakistan, G Parthasarathy: “This can be a determined try by the US-China-Pakistan axis to blackmail India. If China had the slightest inkling about oil reserves in Pakistan, do you suppose it might be sitting on its haunches?”
Islamabad stated as a lot when it described the US-Pak deal as a marker of a broader partnership with Washington, its Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, admitting that there was a bigger financial and strategic settlement.
Pakistan’s dependence on China
Washington has been involved to wean Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million individuals, away from its rising dependence on China.
Shale oil extraction has not been developed in Pakistan, although a 2015 examine by the US Power Info Administration estimated a technically recoverable shale oil useful resource of 9.1 billion barrels for Pakistan.
Factors out Santanu Saikia, editor of Indianpetroplus.com: “Pakistan’s oil and fuel discoveries are but to be confirmed. Some seismic surveys have established prognosticate reserves, however they’re removed from being confirmed, until exploration wells determine the kind of reservoir and its reserves. For all this to occur, and finally for oil and fuel to really move, it might take 10 years.”
Oil is Pakistan’s greatest import merchandise, $11.3 billion within the 12 months ended June 30, 2025, accounting for almost a fifth of its complete import invoice, central financial institution information confirmed.
Politicians making claims on oil discovery to spice up their vote financial institution will not be unusual, however for petroleum specialists to again these assertions is kind of one thing else.
The exaggerated claim of the `huge oil reserve’ owes its origins to former Pakistan PM, Imran Khan, who introduced in March 2019 a “potential huge discover” offshore. Not unnaturally, it was touted as “Asia’s largest oil and fuel reserve”.
Hours after Khan’s announcement, Pakistan’s Petroleum Division denied it, saying the drill didn’t yield the specified outcomes, in accordance with a 2024 report within the Karachi-based Daybreak newspaper.
The report additionally acknowledged that ExxonMobil, ENI, Pakistan Petroleum Restricted, and Oil & Gasoline Improvement Firm Restricted drilled past 5,500 metres however did not discover oil or fuel reserves.
“The drilling work has now been deserted,” an official then advised DawnNewsTV.
“Lately, oil majors — Whole, Shell, and Eni — have exited Pakistan on one pretext or the opposite. Safety stays a significant concern,” the Daybreak stated.
With politics and safety by no means too far-off from one another in Pakistan, most of its oil reserves are in restive Balochistan, the resource-rich province, which is up in opposition to the nation’s navy institution.
Nonetheless, pundits right here spot a possible development. Says petroleum skilled, Piyush Pandey, “A US-Pakistan energy alliance, if realised and sustained, might act as a catalyst for Pakistan’s vitality independence, infrastructure improvement and industrial development. If Pakistan turns into a web vitality exporter, even when modestly, or reduces its import burden, this pact might enhance its commerce deficit, prompting India to speed up its personal exploration efforts in marginal and offshore blocks.”
If that occurs, India might additionally face pricing strain in South Asia LNG or refined product markets if Pakistan begins exporting downstream merchandise or negotiating vitality transit routes, Pandey advised this reporter.
At present, that situation appears to be like a ways away. Roughly $1.02 billion value of Iranian petrol and diesel was illegally transported into Pakistan in 2023, reported Iran Worldwide, quoting a 2024 report of Pakistani navy intelligence. The smuggled oil from Iran makes up about 14 per cent of Pakistan’s annual gas consumption, it stated.
