In the present day, even after a restoration to about $490 billion in market cap, ExxonMobil is a shadow of its former dominance, as synthetic intelligence (AI) firms outpace conventional sectors by an enormous margin.
Nvidia not too long ago soared previous a staggering $4 trillion in market capitalization, turning into the world’s most respected firm — a milestone fueled virtually completely by the AI growth. Microsoft follows at about $3.74 trillion, whereas Apple stands at about $3.15 trillion.
Even Amazon ($2.3 trillion), Alphabet ($2.19 trillion), and Meta ($1.8 trillion) have surged forward. Compared, Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, has a market cap of roughly $1.6 trillion.
But, Nvidia’s financials presently stay modest in comparison with its tech friends. Whereas it leads the AI race, its income and internet earnings nonetheless path these of Apple, whose enterprise is extra mature and diversified. Nvidia reported $130.5 billion in income and $72.88 billion in internet earnings within the 12 months ended December 2024.
Apple, against this, generated over $400 billion in income and virtually $100 billion in revenue in its fiscal 12 months ended September 2024. Microsoft, with $245 billion in annual income and $88 billion in internet earnings, trails Apple in earnings however exceeds it in valuation.
This begs a few questions: Can Nvidia preserve its lead? Extra broadly, which tech titan shall be subsequent to the touch the $4 trillion mark — and even surpass it?
Explosive progress
Nvidia’s meteoric rise stems from its close to monopoly in AI infrastructure. Its GPUs (graphics processing items) — notably the H100 and the brand new Blackwell chips — are the core computational engines behind in the present day’s AI explosion, utilized by cloud suppliers, analysis labs, and startups alike. The corporate enjoys gross margins above 70% and explosive progress in its information centre enterprise, more and more resembling a software program firm greater than a conventional chipmaker.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attributed the expansion to demand for the corporate’s new Blackwell platform, pushed by the rising want for superior reasoning in AI. He famous that as fashions turn into extra refined, growing compute not solely improves coaching but in addition enhances the standard of advanced reasoning duties. Huang stated the speedy progress in agentic AI (that may take human-like motion autonomously too) indicators the start of a brand new wave of innovation poised to remodel main industries.
Nvidia’s main energy lies in its Compute Unified System Structure (CUDA), which supplies it an Apple-like ecosystem moat—deep integration and dependable builders that retains clients tied to its {hardware} and software program stack because it creates a proprietary, full-stack ecosystem that tightly integrates software program with its GPUs.
As a developer platform, CUDA permits fine-tuned management of GPU {hardware}, permitting for superior efficiency in AI, machine studying, and scientific computing.
As a result of CUDA is unique to Nvidia {hardware}, shifting to rivals AMD or Intel requires main rewrites, creating excessive switching prices. Huang has predicted that information centre spending tied to AI will exceed $1 trillion by 2028. Given Nvidia’s management in GPUs, it’s properly positioned “to take an enormous piece,” in response toThe Motley Idiot.
Analysts count on an enormous soar in Nvidia’s income. On common, they predict Nvidia’s income to hit about $204 billion by December 2025 and contact $256 billion by the top of 2026. If this pans out as anticipated, it’ll translate right into a corresponding enhance in market cap.
Who’s subsequent in line?
It was solely in Could 2023 that Nvidia breached $1 trillion in market cap, making it the primary US chipmaker to hitch the trillion-dollar membership.The Motley Fool believes that “a transfer to $5 trillion is properly inside attain. That is a stable 25% return from present ranges, which might nonetheless make the inventory a purchase. So long as AI infrastructure spending continues to ramp up, Nvidia is a inventory you wish to personal.”
Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah, too, stated the hyperscale and AI issue spending might attain $2 trillion by 2028, catapulting Nvidia’s market cap to $6 trillion by that 12 months.
If any firm is poised to problem Nvidia for long-term dominance, it’s Microsoft. With deep integration of AI throughout its productiveness suite (Copilot), a strategic stake in OpenAI, and the backing of Azure as an AI cloud platform, Microsoft is already monetizing AI throughout a number of verticals. Microsoft’s full-stack AI strategy — from chips to fashions to enterprise deployment — provides it a sturdy edge. It’s arguably the almost definitely candidate to hit or surpass $4 trillion subsequent.
Microsoft and Nvidia are seen as AI infrastructure leaders. Microsoft, which has invested $13 billion in OpenAI, has embedded its generative fashions into Azure, Workplace, and GitHub. Nvidia, whose GPUs energy virtually each main massive language mannequin, earns premium margins. Their respective market caps replicate that dominance.
Alternatively, ever because the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which kicked off the present AI race, Apple has been seen as a laggard with no generative pre-trained transformer (GPT) rival, basis mannequin, or noteworthy AI-first merchandise to indicate. However then, it’s extra of a shopper {hardware} and providers large than an AI platform firm. Additional, Apple nonetheless dominates in income, revenue, and buyer loyalty. Its energy lies in its hardware-software integration and the huge iOS ecosystem.
Usually missed
With Apple Intelligence now introducing on-device generative AI, it is getting into the AI race, albeit cautiously and with a robust privacy-first stance. Additionally, usually missed is Apple’s 114-odd acquisitions and the truth that Apple has made extra AI-related acquisitions than its friends—over 30, together with Turi, Xnor.ai, and Vilynx.
These offers haven’t generated buzz however have strengthened core options in Siri, Images, and on-device intelligence. All this makes Apple a steady $3-4 trillion participant, however not essentially the subsequent to surge primarily based on AI momentum.
Alphabet has arguably the strongest AI analysis pedigree with DeepMind, and its Google Gemini mannequin household. It not too long ago acquired a licence to make use of AI coding startup Windsurf’s know-how too, whereas hiring its CEO and a few key members.
Its entry to information by way of Google Search, YouTube, and Android is unparalleled. But, monetizing this edge has been slower than buyers hoped. AI-infused search and promoting merchandise haven’t considerably modified the income story but.
In addition to, firms equivalent to Perplexity and OpenAI are introducing AI-powered browsers to problem the dominance of Google Chrome (that now has an AI mode, too) and eat into the latter’s promoting income (from Search, YouTube advertisements), which presently accounts for about 75% of its total income.
Alphabet’s income ($350 billion) and revenue ($100 billion) are robust, and it stays a prime contender. However until it may possibly commercialize Gemini and compete with Microsoft’s enterprise AI stack, Google might path behind in market cap progress, which presently stands at about $2.2 trillion.
Amazon is the biggest income generator within the tech group at about $640 billion however its revenue ($59 billion) is thinner given that almost all of its cash comes from its ecommerce enterprise. Amazon Internet Providers (AWS), in the meantime, has grown right into a quiet powerhouse within the AI area, providing foundational fashions (Bedrock), coaching infrastructure, and customized chips (Trainium).
Amazon, Meta
With about $108 billion in gross sales income, it now accounts for nearly 17% of Amazon’s total income. AI additionally powers Amazon’s logistics, search, and Alexa voice assistant. Nevertheless, Amazon lacks a defining AI services or products — no chatbot, no enterprise AI suite — that captures investor creativeness, which explains its market cap at $2.3 trillion.
Meta’s market cap at about $1.8 trillion places it additional behind, however it’s investing closely in open-source AI fashions (LLaMA) and constructing its personal chips. AI drives engagement on Instagram and Fb, powers Reels suggestions, and sharpens advert focusing on.
It’s additionally the one Huge Tech agency releasing frontier fashions underneath open licences, shaping the open-source AI panorama. Nonetheless, Meta lacks enterprise diversification and is essentially consumer-focused. Its AI is impactful, however has but to turn into transformative sufficient to push it towards the $4 trillion tier.
Merely put, within the brief time period, count on Microsoft to be the subsequent true $4 trillion firm. In the long run, all bets are open however AI will outline the winners.
