MuTech billionaire Elon Musk has raised issues about what he considers humanity’s most critical existential risk, ‘falling beginning charges’. In a put up on X, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO reacted to a consumer referencing a Fortune report, which claimed that girls have to have a mean of two.7 youngsters to maintain inhabitants ranges.
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What does the report say?
Nawfal shared statistics, referencing Fortune, and identified that the broadly accepted alternative price of two.1 youngsters per lady is now thought of outdated. He wrote, “Scientists now say 2.1 youngsters per lady received’t reduce it — 2.7 is the actual quantity wanted to keep away from long-term extinction. Proper now, the U.S. is at 1.66, and most wealthy international locations are even decrease, together with Italy at 1.29 and Japan at 1.30.”
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Nawfal additional defined that the revised determine accounts for variables similar to people who by no means have youngsters and gender imbalances at beginning.
“Individuals who have youngsters do have to have 3 youngsters to make up for individuals who have 0 or 1 child or inhabitants will collapse,” Musk stated whereas reposting Nawfal’s put up.
Musk has related declining beginning charges to the collapse of previous civilisations, notably historic Rome. He as soon as remarked, “Low beginning charges have been the first issue of their downfall — shockingly neglected by most historians.”
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Framing the problem as each a mathematical and civilizational disaster, Musk has constantly warned of long-term penalties, famously stating, “In case you don’t imagine me now, simply wait 20 years.”
Over the previous 20 years, Elon Musk has fathered 14 youngsters. He first grew to become a father or mother in 2002 with the beginning of his son Nevada Alexander, whom he shared along with his then-wife, Canadian creator Justine Wilson. Tragically, Nevada handed away at simply 10 weeks previous. Musk and Wilson later had 5 extra youngsters collectively: twins Vivian and Griffin, adopted by triplets Kai, Saxon, and Damian.
Is the fertility price declining worldwide? UN says…
In case you don’t imagine me now, simply wait 20 years.
A brand new report from the United Nations Inhabitants Fund (UNFPA), the UN’s reproductive rights company, revealed that low fertility rates are more and more widespread worldwide. In its most direct assertion to this point on falling fertility charges, the company warns that a whole bunch of tens of millions of individuals are unable to have as many youngsters as they want. Key causes embody the excessive price of elevating youngsters and the problem to find an appropriate companion.
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Low beginning charges have been the first issue of their downfall — shockingly neglected by most historians.
The 2025 State of World Inhabitants (SOWP) Report by UNFPA, titled “The Actual Fertility Disaster,” highlighted that India’s whole fertility price has dropped to 1.9 births per lady, which is under the alternative threshold of two.1.
“India has made important progress in decreasing fertility charges – from almost 5 youngsters per lady in 1970 to about two as we speak, due to improved training and entry to reproductive healthcare,” stated Andrea M Wojnar, UNFPA India Consultant.
